COLA Ledger

An independent reference — not affiliated with the Social Security Administration. Every figure traced to the government publication that produced it.

The 2027 Social Security COLA — what CPI-W through August 2026 says

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026.

Data vintage: CPI-W through August 2026.

If CPI-W holds at its August 2026 level through September

3.4%

That is a conditional statement, not a forecast. Change the assumption and the number changes — the other two scenarios below are on the same page for exactly that reason.

The base is already fixed, and it is a fact

Half of this computation is settled. The 2027 adjustment is measured against the third-quarter 2025 CPI-W average of 317.265 — 2025 being the last year in which an adjustment became effective. That figure will not move.

The fixed base: third-quarter 2025 CPI-W
MonthCPI-W index
July 2025316.349
August 2025317.306
September 2025318.139
Base quarter average317.265

The 2026 readings this projection uses

The other half is the third quarter of 2026 — July, August and September. This projection has July 2026 and August 2026; September 2026 decides the rest. Everything else on this page is an assumption about the months it does not have, and each one says so.

CPI-W readings for 2026 through August 2026, with BLS's scheduled release dates
Reference monthCPI-W indexScheduled releaseIn the third quarter?
January 2026317.94213 February 2026no
February 2026319.42211 March 2026no
March 2026323.50010 April 2026no
April 2026326.54112 May 2026no
May 2026328.82910 June 2026no
June 2026327.07514 July 2026no
July 2026327.10412 August 2026yes — it counts
August 2026328.48111 September 2026yes — it counts
September 2026not in this projection14 October 2026yes — it counts

Three scenarios, each with its assumption on the row

None of these is a forecast and none is sourced to anyone’s model. Each takes the published months as given and applies one stated rule to the months this projection does not have.

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026.

What each assumption implies for the 2027 adjustment, computed from the published CPI-W
IfMonthly pace appliedThird-quarter averageAdjustment would be
CPI-W holds at its August 2026 level of 328.481 through September.0.00%328.0223.4%
Each unpublished month grows at the geometric mean monthly change over the 12 months to August 2026.0.29%328.3383.5%
Each unpublished month grows at the geometric mean monthly change over the 3 months to August 2026.-0.04%327.9833.4%

The flat-carry row is shown first and highlighted because its assumption is the only one that requires no view about the future at all: it simply carries the last published index forward unchanged. Pace in the other two rows means the geometric mean monthly change over the stated window, compounded through September — the exact definition the engine implements, so every figure here is reproducible from the published index values.

What each scenario would mean in dollars

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026.

Gross monthly benefit from January 2027 under each stated assumption, for a benefit of the stated amount in 2026
Benefit in 2026Flat carry (3.4%)Trailing 12-month pace (3.5%)Trailing 3-month pace (3.4%)
SSA's average retired-worker benefit in 2026, $2,071$2,141 +$70$2,143 +$72$2,141 +$70
A $1,000 benefit in 2026$1,034 +$34$1,035 +$35$1,034 +$34
A $2,000 benefit in 2026$2,068 +$68$2,070 +$70$2,068 +$68
A $3,000 benefit in 2026$3,102 +$102$3,105 +$105$3,102 +$102

No 2027 Part B premium is used here. CMS announces it separately, on a date that varies from year to year, and this site does not estimate it — so no net 2027 figure is shown.

These rows start from the benefit as paid in 2026, after the 2.8% 2026 adjustment. The per-amount ledger pages start a year earlier: the $3,000 page follows a $3,000 benefit from 2025, which the 2026 adjustment made $3,084, and carries that amount forward.

The 2027 Part B premium is a separate announcement

CMS announces the following year’s Part B premium on its own schedule, not the adjustment’s: it released the 2018 to 2026 premiums on dates from 27 September (the 2023 premium) to 17 November (the 2018 premium). Until it does, a gross figure exists and a net one does not, and this site will not estimate the premium to close that gap. In 2026 the premium was $202.90 and it took 31.96% of the raise on a $2,000 benefit. That is the shape of what the premium does, not a prediction of its size. When CMS announces it, year by year.

What happens on announcement morning

This page does not get replaced. The URL you are reading stays exactly where it is and becomes the announcement page the moment SSA publishes — the projection is not thrown away, it is superseded in place, with the scenarios left visible so the record is legible afterwards.

The build has one gate that matters more than any other that morning: our computed adjustment must equal SSA’s announced one. If they disagree, nothing publishes. A disagreement would mean either our reading of the CPI-W or our understanding of the rule is wrong, and both are things to find out before publishing rather than after.

This page is recomputed and redeployed within hours of every CPI release.

BLS's scheduled release dates for the months after August 2026: September 2026 CPI-W on 14 October 2026; October 2026 CPI-W on 10 November 2026; November 2026 CPI-W on 10 December 2026.

One month in this series will never exist

BLS did not publish an October 2025 Consumer Price Index. Due to a lapse in appropriations, BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data and was unable to retroactively collect these data.

It does not affect this computation — the third quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2025 are both intact — but any code that walks the series month by month across it will produce wrong answers silently. What the gap does, and what it does not do.

Use this table

Free to use with a link to this page. Download the per-amount table (CSV) — $100 steps from $500 to $5,000 as 2026 benefits, plus SSA’s average, from the same computation as the table above, with each scenario’s assumption on every row. Every adjustment since 1975, with its recomputation (CSV).

Embed the table

Paste this anywhere. It carries its own styling, loads nothing, keeps its assumptions with it, and credits COLA Ledger with a link.

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026.

<table style="border-collapse:collapse;max-width:720px;font:14px/1.5 Georgia,serif;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;color:#17170f">
  <caption style="text-align:left;font-weight:700;padding:0 0 8px">The 2027 Social Security COLA: projection, not an announced figure</caption>
  <thead>
    <tr style="background:#f6ecdc"><th scope="col" style="padding:6px 10px;text-align:left">Benefit in 2026</th><th scope="col" style="padding:6px 10px;text-align:right">Flat carry (3.4%)</th><th scope="col" style="padding:6px 10px;text-align:right">Trailing 12-month pace (3.5%)</th><th scope="col" style="padding:6px 10px;text-align:right">Trailing 3-month pace (3.4%)</th></tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8">SSA's average retired-worker benefit in 2026, $2,071</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,141 (+$70)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,143 (+$72)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,141 (+$70)</td></tr>
    <tr><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8">A $1,000 benefit in 2026</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$1,034 (+$34)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$1,035 (+$35)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$1,034 (+$34)</td></tr>
    <tr><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8">A $2,000 benefit in 2026</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,068 (+$68)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,070 (+$70)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$2,068 (+$68)</td></tr>
    <tr><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8">A $3,000 benefit in 2026</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$3,102 (+$102)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$3,105 (+$105)</td><td style="padding:6px 10px;border-bottom:1px solid #e4e1d8;text-align:right">$3,102 (+$102)</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  <tfoot>
    <tr><td colspan="4" style="padding:8px 10px 0;font-size:12px;color:#4a4739">Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026. Gross monthly benefit from January 2027, floored to the whole dollar. Source: <a href="https://colaledger.com/cola-2027/" rel="nofollow">COLA Ledger</a>.</td></tr>
  </tfoot>
</table>

Common questions

When is the 2027 COLA announced?

September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Wednesday 14 October 2026. SSA has announced the adjustment the same morning as the September release in every recent year. The date is soft — a shutdown moved the 2025 release nine days — but the event is reliable, because September data is collected before the fiscal year turns.

What is the 2027 COLA going to be?

Nobody knows, including this site. What can be stated is arithmetic: the base is fixed at 317.265. Projection based on July and August 2026 CPI-W, two of the three third-quarter months that decide the 2027 COLA. Each scenario on this page states exactly what it assumes about the rest. If CPI-W simply holds at its August 2026 level, the result would be 3.4%.

Why does this page not just give one number?

Because one number would be a claim about the future, and the honest artifact is the arithmetic plus the assumption. A projection that was clearly conditional and got superseded is not an error. A projection that read as a claim is.

Will my check go up by the full 2027 adjustment?

Not net. CMS announces the 2027 Medicare Part B premium separately, on a date that varies from year to year, and it comes out of the payment. No honest net figure exists before CMS publishes it, and this site will not estimate it.

The arithmetic behind all of this

Sources and freshness

Projection recomputed on every build from the committed CPI-W series. COLA Ledger publishes no third-party forecast and no point estimate.

Page figures last verified against the sources above on 23 September 2026. BLS data retrieved 23 September 2026. BLS.gov cannot vouch for data or analyses derived from these data after retrieval. Corrections: the correction log · support@inventum.com.au