The COLA you do not get
The 2026 cost-of-living adjustment was 2.8%. On a $2,000 monthly benefit the raise that actually reached the bank account was 2.09%. The difference is one number that moved in the same January and gets almost no coverage: the Medicare Part B premium.
Effective net raise on a $2,000 benefit
2.09%
Against a headline 2.8%. The Part B increase of +$18 consumed 31.96% of the raise.
- Gross raise
- +$56a month
- Premium increase
- +$18a month
- Net raise
- +$38+$456 a year
- Share consumed
- 31.96%of the raise
The signature ledger
| 2025 | 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross monthly benefit | $2,000 | $2,056 | +$56 |
| Medicare Part B premium | $185.00 | $202.90 | +$18 |
| Net monthly payment | $1,815 | $1,853 | +$38 |
| Annual net | $21,780 | $22,236 | +$456 |
The burden is regressive, and sharply so
The premium increase is a flat $17.90 for everyone. The gross raise is a percentage, so it scales with the benefit. Dividing one by the other gives a share of the raise consumed that falls steeply as the benefit rises — from 100.00% at $500 a month to 12.79% at $5,000.
| Monthly benefit | Gross raise | Net raise | Effective % | Share taken by Part B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | +$14 | +$0 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| $900 | +$25 | +$7 | 0.98% | 71.60% |
| $1,300 | +$36 | +$18 | 1.61% | 49.72% |
| $1,700 | +$47 | +$29 | 1.91% | 38.09% |
| $2,100 | +$58 | +$40 | 2.09% | 30.86% |
| $2,500 | +$70 | +$52 | 2.25% | 25.57% |
| $2,900 | +$81 | +$63 | 2.32% | 22.10% |
| $3,300 | +$92 | +$74 | 2.38% | 19.46% |
| $3,700 | +$103 | +$85 | 2.42% | 17.38% |
| $4,100 | +$114 | +$96 | 2.45% | 15.70% |
| $4,500 | +$126 | +$108 | 2.50% | 14.21% |
| $4,900 | +$137 | +$119 | 2.52% | 13.07% |
| $5,000 | +$140 | +$122 | 2.53% | 12.79% |
At the published average retired-worker benefit — $2,015 rising to $2,071 on SSA’s own figures — the effective net raise is 2.08% and the premium takes 31.96% of it.
Below the break-even, the arithmetic changes shape entirely
At the bottom of the ladder the hold-harmless provision caps the premium increase at the beneficiary’s own dollar adjustment, so the share consumed hits 100% and stops there — the net payment cannot fall, but it does not rise either. That is a genuinely different calculation, not a smaller version of the same one. Where the cap binds in 2026.
Why this number does not exist elsewhere
It requires two datasets joined at the level of an individual benefit amount. Social Security coverage treats the Medicare premium as background; Medicare coverage treats the benefit as background. Neither side computes the join, and the join is the number people actually experience — the one that explains why a widely reported 2.8% raise did not feel like 2.8%.
Every figure on this page is recomputed from the committed datasets on each build, with the same engine that produces the 46 individual ledger pages. Nothing here is transcribed.
What happens next year
The same pincer repeats on a fixed calendar. The adjustment is announced in October; the following year’s Part B premium is announced in mid-November. For about a month a gross figure exists and a net one does not — and this site will not estimate the premium to close the gap. The projection as it stands. · Why the calendar works this way.
Common questions
Is the Medicare increase taking a fixed share of everyone’s raise?
No, and that is the whole point of this study. The premium increase is a flat $17.90 for everyone, while the raise scales with the benefit. At $500 a month the premium increase takes 100.00% of the raise; at $5,000 it takes 12.79%. The burden is sharply regressive.
Does this mean the COLA figure is wrong?
No. The published adjustment is exactly what it says: the percentage applied to the gross benefit. What it is not is the raise that lands in the bank, because a second published number — the Part B premium — is deducted after it and moved in the same January.
Why does nobody publish this?
Because it needs two datasets joined at the level of an individual benefit amount. Social Security coverage treats Medicare as background and Medicare coverage treats Social Security as background. The join is where the number lives.
What happens in a year with a small adjustment?
The share rises, and below a break-even benefit amount the hold-harmless provision caps the premium increase entirely. In a near-zero adjustment year that cap binds across a large part of the population and suppresses the standard premium for everyone.
Related
- Your own amountcalculator
- Hold harmlessthe cap
- When it takes everythingsmall benefits
- IRMAAthe higher premiums
- Part B 2026$202.90
- The 2026 COLA2.8%
Sources and freshness
- SSA Office of the Chief Actuary — Cost-of-Living Adjustments — verified 10 August 2026
- Federal Register — Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rates, and Annual Deductible Beginning January 1, 2026 — verified 10 August 2026
- Federal Register — Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rates, and Annual Deductible Beginning January 1, 2025 — verified 10 August 2026
- SSA — 2026 COLA fact sheet — verified 10 August 2026
Reuse of these figures is welcome with attribution to the page they came from.
Figures effective January 2026. Page figures last verified against the sources above on 10 August 2026. Corrections: the correction log · support@inventum.com.au